关于今冬新冠疫情形势分析，与吴尊友博士商榷

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资讯来源：药时代

发布时间： 2022-12-22

点击欣赏推介会全程——优秀BD是怎样炼成的？

</section></section></section><section arial="" center="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" rgb="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="margin-bottom: 0em;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" visible="" yahei=""><span style="outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;color: rgb(232, 22, 105);"><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 15px;visibility: visible;">请点击左下方【阅读原文】报名！</span></strong></span></section><section arial="" center="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" normal="" rgb="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="margin-bottom: 0em;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" visible="" yahei=""><span arial="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" rgb="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" visible="" yahei=""><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span arial="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" visible="" yahei=""/></strong></span></section><section arial="" center="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" normal="" rgb="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="margin-bottom: 0em;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" visible="" yahei=""><span arial="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" rgb="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" visible="" yahei=""><strong style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><span arial="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" visible="" yahei=""><br/></span></strong></span></section><section arial="" center="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" normal="" rgb="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="margin-bottom: 0em;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" visible="" yahei=""><span style="color: rgb(255, 99, 30);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 11px;text-indent: 2em;caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34);"/></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">12月17日，中国疾控中心流行病学首席专家吴尊友博士（以下简称吴博士）在财经年会上发表了《如何迈过黎明前的黑暗——今冬新冠疫情形势分析》的主题演讲</span><span microsoft="" rgb="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">[1，2]</span><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">。</span></p></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><br/></section><p style="text-align: center;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><img border="0" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="295" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5404089581304771" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/1d46e24b18c1741c4c53e901329b0c90.png" data-type="png" data-w="1027" height="326" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;height: auto;" width="604"/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);line-height: 2em;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);line-height: 2em;font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span border-box="" break-word="" microsoft="" none="" style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">在近半个小时的演讲里，吴博士主要谈到了四个方面的内容：</span></p><section data-id="106736" data-tools="135编辑器" style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px auto;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 4px;display: flex;transform-style: preserve-3d;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;transform: translate(62px, 0px) translateZ(9px);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 1px;height: 209.318px;border-right: 1px solid rgb(255, 182, 17);overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section style="flex: 1 1 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p>0<span data-original-title="" title="">1</span></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" data-width="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 5px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(65, 76, 70);flex: 1 1 0%;width: 100%;max-width: 100%;"><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span border-box="" break-word="" microsoft="" none="" style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">赢得宝贵的三年</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p>02</p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span border-box="" break-word="" microsoft="" none="" style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">非专业与专业</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p>03</p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span border-box="" break-word="" microsoft="" none="" style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">奥密克戎病死率是“魔鬼”</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p>04</p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span border-box="" break-word="" microsoft="" none="" style="max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">今冬新冠疫情的走势</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">在认真听完吴博士的演讲后，心中产生了一些疑问，因为疫情防控涉及公众的健康和切身利益，所以在此公开与吴博士探讨：</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><section data-id="121233" data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px auto;display: flex;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 7px;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section></section><section style="padding: 5px 15px;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;background-color: rgb(79, 158, 255);border-radius: 6px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><strong data-brushtype="text">现在是新冠死亡人数最少的时刻？</strong></p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin-bottom: 0.14in;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">在演讲的开头，吴博士对为什么在这个时候推出这一新的防疫政策进行了解释。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">在吴博士看来，此前我们严格的防疫政策为抵抗新冠病毒赢得了宝贵的三年时间。而在经历了三年的疫情后，新冠病毒的致病性减弱了，我们疫苗接种率达到了92%，同时我们对这种传染病也有了一定的应对能力。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">为了进一步说明现在的新冠病毒致病性的减弱，吴博士还出示了国内外一些数据。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">在国内方面，吴博士统计了2020，2021以及2022年新冠在中国所导致的重症率和病死率的情况。如下面截图中所显示的那样，这三年中国大陆的新冠重症率分别为16.47%、3.32%和0.18%，呈逐年下降状态；而这三年的病死率则分别为5.18%、0.02%和0.04%，也就是说这两年新冠在中国的病死率已经下降到了一个极低的水平。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">从全球范围来看，吴博士指出，12月是世界上每周新冠死亡人数最少的时刻，连续几周都低于1万。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">但在这一点上，我想和吴博士探讨一下，从吴博士给出的图中，其实不是现在，早在4月份，世界上每周新冠死亡人数就已经开始大幅降低，和吴博士认为的“死亡人数最少的时刻”几乎处于同一水平线上。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">在这张图中，我们还可以看出，在今年4月份之后，世界每周新冠死亡人数就一直维持在一个较低的水平。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-bottom: 0.14in;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><img border="0" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="751" data-backw="546" data-ratio="1.3773148148148149" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/2ee110f63f2ff9e38ed56fdcd9b7c71d.png" data-type="png" data-w="432" height="757" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;height: auto;" width="550"/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">吴博士对为什么现在推出“新十条”的解释（图源：参考链接2）</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><section data-id="121233" data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px auto;display: flex;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 7px;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section></section><section style="padding: 5px 15px;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;background-color: rgb(79, 158, 255);border-radius: 6px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><strong data-brushtype="text">现在不是人群免疫水平最高的时候</strong></p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">推出“新十条”，决定与新冠病毒共存，让人们的生活重新回归正常，这是一件值得肯定的事情。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">从吴博士所给出的信息来看，我与他在防控理念上应该是一致的，即“新十条”需要在新冠病毒致病性降低而且疫苗接种尽量让人们有免疫力的时候推出，因为这样才能尽量减少放开后所带来的损害。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">至于推出的最佳时机，我不敢妄言，毕竟公共政策的制定和推行时间，是一个全方位的考量结果。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">我所略知一二的，是我们的疫苗接种情况。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">吴博士在演讲中提到，我国人群中疫苗接种率高达92%，60岁以上长者也有86%。但他没有提的是，以上只是两剂疫苗的接种，而且最需要保护的80岁以上长者中两剂疫苗接种率只有65.8%。在加强针方面的数据就更不乐观，60岁以上人群中只有68.7%，80岁以上人群中则是更低的40.4%</span><span microsoft="" rgb="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">[3]</span><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">关于疫苗，更为重要的一点吴博士也没有提到，即最后一次疫苗接种的时间。在中国大多数两剂甚至加强针都是在半年到一年以前接种的。而最新的研究表明，新冠疫苗的保护效果（无论是两剂接种还是三剂加强针）都会在几个月后剧烈下降</span><span microsoft="" rgb="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">[4，5]</span><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">所以，可以肯定的是，因为接种时间间隔太长，现在很多人的体内对新冠疫苗的免疫力已经大大下降。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">因此可以说，虽然推出新十条是大势所趋和人心所向。但仅仅从接种疫苗方面来说，个人觉得有两个时机可能会更好一些：</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">一是今年四月，因为那时的新冠病毒的致病性同样处于一个较低的水平，而且大多数人完成两剂疫苗或加强针不久，对新冠的保护作用依然相对较高。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">二是比今年12月7日稍微晚半个月或一个月的时候，之所以要晚上一段时间，是需要提前告知并让公众能够有时间接种新冠疫苗加强针，从而以最强的免疫状态等待放开后大规模疫情的到来。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><section data-id="121233" data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px auto;display: flex;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 7px;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section></section><section style="padding: 5px 15px;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;background-color: rgb(79, 158, 255);border-radius: 6px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><span microsoft="" style="font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei=""><strong>如果“新十条”提前到今年一月实行，</strong></span><span microsoft="" style="caret-color: red;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei=""><strong>中国将多死一百万人吗？</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">吴博士在演讲中还做了一个这样的假设：假若“新十条”在今年初推出，结果会怎么样？</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">吴博士的结论是，这样中国大陆在2022年将死亡86.6-103.9万人。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">我们来看看他是如何得到这个结论的，为了估算年初放开将给中国带来多少死亡，吴博士采用了四个数据来做参考：全球、美国、中国香港、中国台湾在2022年的新冠死亡情况。以上面四个地方的指标为依据，吴博士计算出了中国大陆如果年初放开将会出现25.3万、103.9万、208.9万、86.6万人的死亡。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">接下来，吴博士去掉了上面四个值种的最高值和最低值，认为利用美国和中国台湾的情况为依据所估算出的结果比较可信，所以得出了如果年初开放，将导致2022年中国大陆有86.6-103.9万人因为新冠而死亡的结论。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-bottom: 0.14in;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:center;margin-bottom: 0.14in;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><img border="0" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="580" data-backw="546" data-ratio="1.0625" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/2b862cb0e8c5dc147b1950801de897fe.png" data-type="png" data-w="432" height="642" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;height: auto;" width="604"/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">吴博士对假若2022年年初时推出“新十条”所带来的死亡的估算（图源：参考链接2）</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-bottom: 0.14in;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;caret-color: red;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">但在我看来，这一结论是有问题的。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">就像吴博士自己注意到并且强调的那样，奥密克戎在世界各地的病死率差异非常大，所以采用美国和中国台湾的数据来作为依据去估算中国大陆的情况本身就不准确，最合适的依据是中国大陆自己的数据。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">而令人不解的是，吴博士自己明明知道新冠病毒2022年在中国病死率——0.04%——的数据，但他没有采用这个数据来估算死亡情况。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">我们不妨在这里估算一下，假设“新十条”在2022年初推出，一年内导致一半的人口被感染，即7亿。按照吴博士提供的新冠2022年在中国大陆的病死率0.04%来计算，那么整年将大致有28万人死亡；全部14亿人被感染，数字则是56万人。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">当然以上只是大致的理论估算，当大规模感染发生并导致医疗资源挤兑的时候，病死率会增加，而死亡人数也同样会因此增多。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">但无论如何，采用美国和中国台湾的数据来估算中国大陆的情况，肯定说不上准确。</span><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;caret-color: red;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">除了不准确，这个算法还有误导之嫌。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">严格的疫情防控并不会一直持续，中国大陆终将有一天走向开放，回归正常社会生活秩序。在严格的防控下，那些高危的易感人群（老年人和有基础病的人群）只是暂时免于新冠的感染，等到放开后还是要面临感染和死亡的危险。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">这就像水库里的水，只是暂时留在了水库里，等到堤坝放开的时候，这些水还终将流出来。真正好的办法，是让这些水缓慢流下，避免瞬间的泄洪所带来的次生灾害——也就是减少因为大量人群感染而带来的医疗挤兑造成的病死率上升。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><section data-id="121233" data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px auto;display: flex;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 7px;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section></section><section style="padding: 5px 15px;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;background-color: rgb(79, 158, 255);border-radius: 6px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><strong data-brushtype="text">奥密克戎的病死率是“魔鬼”吗？</strong></p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">在这段视频的22分35秒，吴博士提出“奥密克戎的病死率就是一个魔鬼”，理由是它在不同国家、不同人群、不同人口、不同疫情规模差异很大，不像狂犬病毒和流感病毒那样相对稳定。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><img border="0" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="255" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.4675925925925926" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/95fbf0fd446c6ebe8f60d8b9ba0ee02a.png" data-type="png" data-w="432" height="282" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;height: auto;" width="604"/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">吴博士在报告中提出奥密克戎病死率就是一个“魔”（图源：参考链接2）</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">但这种差异是可以解释的。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">个人觉得主要有下面几个方面：</span></p><section data-id="106736" data-tools="135编辑器" style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px auto;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 4px;display: flex;transform-style: preserve-3d;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;transform: translate(62px, 0px) translateZ(9px);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 1px;height: 381.406px;border-right: 1px solid rgb(255, 182, 17);overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section style="flex: 1 1 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">01</span></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" data-width="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 5px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(65, 76, 70);flex: 1 1 0%;width: 100%;max-width: 100%;"><p><span style="color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-size: 16px;">被感染的人群的年龄结构。年轻人越多病死率越低。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">02</span></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" style="margin-top: 5px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(65, 76, 70);flex: 1 1 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><span style="color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-size: 16px;">疫苗接种情况。疫苗接种程度（尤其是在老年人中的普及程度）和疫苗的种类会影响病死率。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">03</span></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" style="margin-top: 5px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(65, 76, 70);flex: 1 1 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><span style="color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-size: 16px;">自然感染的情况。在奥密克戎流行之前，一些地方已经有了相当规模的自然感染的发生。这些之前的自然感染一方面导致了一些高危人群的死亡，另一方面让康复者对新冠病毒有了一定的免疫力。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">04</span></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" style="margin-top: 5px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(65, 76, 70);flex: 1 1 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><span style="color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-size: 16px;">统计口径不一致。有些地方统计的是新冠直接导致的死亡，有些地方统计的是新冠相关的死亡。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">05</span></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" style="margin-top: 5px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(65, 76, 70);flex: 1 1 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><span style="color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-size: 16px;">医疗资源一旦发生挤兑，病死率也会上升。今年4月香港的情况就是很好的教训。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">如果在以上几个主要因素都考虑到并一致化的情况下，奥密克戎在各地的病死率的差异就会大大缩小。其实不仅奥密克戎如此，就是流感病毒也是同样，如果在计算流感病死率的时候也掺杂有以上几个主要因素的话，那么流感在世界各地的病死率也会呈现出巨大的差异。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">所以，我个人认为，对于奥密克戎在各地不同的病死率在科学上完全可以解释。而把一个可以用科学来解释的事物称为“魔鬼”，这是一种不恰当的说法，甚至可以说在对奥密克戎“妖魔化”。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">很遗憾吴博士向公众传播一个这样的理念。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><section data-id="121233" data-tools="135编辑器" style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px auto;display: flex;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 7px;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section></section><section style="padding: 5px 15px;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;background-color: rgb(79, 158, 255);border-radius: 6px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><strong data-brushtype="text">中国大陆的低病死率是因为什么？</strong></p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:center;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">为了更好的解释新冠死亡的情况，吴博士先对三个相关指标做了定义。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><img border="0" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="176" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.32175925925925924" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/a9d42322b6d6a2113f82e096cff18dd2.png" data-type="png" data-w="432" height="189" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;height: auto;" width="587"/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">吴博士对新冠死亡相关的三个指标的定义（图源：参考链接2）</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><section data-id="106736" data-tools="135编辑器" style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px auto;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 4px;display: flex;transform-style: preserve-3d;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;transform: translate(62px, 0px) translateZ(9px);"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 1px;height: 136.747px;border-right: 1px solid rgb(255, 182, 17);overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section style="flex: 1 1 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">01</span></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" data-width="100%" style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-top: 5px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(65, 76, 70);flex: 1 1 0%;width: 100%;max-width: 100%;"><p><span style="color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-size: 16px;">死亡绝对数：新冠患者死亡总数。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">02</span></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" style="margin-top: 5px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(65, 76, 70);flex: 1 1 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><span style="color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-size: 16px;">病死率：新冠患者死亡总数占所有新冠患者的比例。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin-top: 15px;transform: translateZ(10px);"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;align-items: center;flex-shrink: 0;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 42px;height: 30px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);transform: skew(-15deg);"><section style="font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 30px;transform: skew(15deg);"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">03</span></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;width: 8px;height: 8px;background-color: rgb(71, 130, 255);border-radius: 50%;overflow: hidden;"><br/></section></section><section data-brushtype="text" style="margin-top: 5px;text-align: left;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(65, 76, 70);flex: 1 1 0%;box-sizing: border-box;"><p><span style="color: rgb(38, 38, 38);font-size: 16px;">死亡率：新冠患者死亡总数占当地人口的比例。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">在接下来视频中的18分30秒，吴博士提到今年1到6月份上海的新冠病毒病死率是国内其他地方的59倍，并对这个差异的原因进行了解释。他认为“是其他地方的疫情防控的好，预防了很多人的感染，而没有感染的人则不可能因为新冠死亡，因而把病死率降下来了。”</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><img border="0" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="283" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5185185185185185" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/899ebd43458c3cb91b56dd1c9567ba9c.png" data-type="png" data-w="432" height="313" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;height: auto;" width="604"/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">虽然在前一张幻灯片上，吴博士对病死率和死亡率做了清楚的名词解释，但显然在这里他又把两者混淆了。因为，既然病死率是新冠患者死亡数占所有患者的比例，那么它就和多少人感染关系不大。真正和感染人数有关的，是死亡率，既新冠患者死亡总数占当地人口的比例。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">也就是说，疫情控制好减少了感染的发生，从而降低新冠死亡病例数，直接影响的是死亡率，而不是病死率。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei=""><br/></span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">那么中国大陆的病死率为什么远远低于国外呢？</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei=""><br/></span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">从前面提到的五个主要影响奥密克戎病死率的因素来看，其中的疫苗接种和自然感染两个因素基本可以排除。因为中国自然感染新冠的比例远远低于国外，所接种新冠疫苗的保护效率也相对较低，所以都不可能成为降低中国大陆奥密克戎病死率的因素。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">剩下的三个因素都有可能。先说统计口径，在国外的大多数国家，统计的是新冠相关死亡，即只要死者患上了新冠，都算新冠死亡。而在中国大陆，昨天的官方新闻发布会确定，按新冠直接导致的死亡来定义，那么死亡的人数就会大大降低，病死率也会降低到一个非常低的水平。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">再说感染人群的结构。感染人群的结构不仅和一个国家和地区的整体人群结构有关，也和疫情规模有关，如果疫情控制在小规模初级的阶段，那么被感染者更可能是社会活动更多的非老年人，所以这也会让病死率维持在一个很低的水平。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">最后一个医疗资源的挤兑情况。在今年12月放开之前，因为极低的感染人群，在中国的主要城市都没有发生医疗资源的挤兑，这也是病死率维持在低水平的因素之一。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">放开之后，这个因素恐怕会受到极大的冲击，从北京这样的一线城市的发热门诊、120急救热线的占用情况可见一斑。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><section data-id="121233" data-role="title" data-tools="135编辑器" style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 10px auto;display: flex;justify-content: center;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 7px;display: flex;justify-content: flex-start;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;margin-left: 4px;width: 7px;height: 13px;background-color: rgb(252, 217, 24);border-radius: 100%;overflow: hidden;transform: rotate(-35deg);"><br/></section></section><section style="padding: 5px 15px;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;background-color: rgb(79, 158, 255);border-radius: 6px;letter-spacing: 1.5px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-align:center;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;"><span microsoft="" style="font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei=""><strong>过了这个冬天，来年真的会春光明媚吗</strong>？</span></p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">这是我想与吴博士商榷的最后一个问题，在这段视频的0分25秒，吴博士说：“那么过了这个冬天，我想明年呢就会春光明媚了。”</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">我不知道吴博士这里表达的是一种判断还是一个希望。从措辞上来看，更像是判断。稍微遗憾的是，吴博士没有为这个判断提供证据。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><img border="0" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="293" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5370370370370371" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/8227df380e0fb4000fb13270476e431d.png" data-type="png" data-w="432" height="324" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;height: auto;" width="604"/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">吴尊友博士在报告中对这个冬季疫情的估算（图源：参考链接2）</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">我们先从理论层面来看，就像吴博士自己估算的那样，今年冬天的疫情中国大陆将会有10%-30%的总人口被感染。也就是说，在今年冬季疫情过后，依然有70%-90%的人群没有被感染。而且因为他们接种的疫苗时间已经大多超过了一年，保护感染的效率已经大大下降，所以他们即使躲过这个冬季的疫情，其中的绝大多数还将在未来被新冠病毒感染。还有，因为新冠病毒不断突变所导致的免疫逃逸能力的提高，感染者康复后再次被感染也有了可能。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">换句话说，即使是今年冬季过后，从理论上来说疫情还会一波一波地到来。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">让我们再看看现实世界的情况，我们看看那些和中国一样采取了严格防控措施，但后来在疫苗接种普及后放开的国家或地区：澳大利亚、新西兰和中国台湾地区。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><img border="0" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="274" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5023148148148148" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/62e574658c79338db9c821cb97c0391d.png" data-type="png" data-w="432" height="303" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;caret-color: red;width: 100%;height: auto;" width="604"/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">澳大利亚、新西兰和中国台湾地区的新冠疫情新增病例走势图（图源：参考链接6）</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">从上图中看，最早放开的是澳大利亚，它在2021年12月迎来了井喷式的第一波疫情。等到这波长达三、四个月的夏季疫情缓和之后，澳大利亚在2022年的秋季和冬季并没有平静，而是反复出现了另外三波疫情。等到第四波疫情今年10月走向低谷之后，第五波疫情在2022年年末又扑面而来。（注：澳大利亚处于南半球）</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">稍微晚一些开放的新西兰，同样也在放开后迎来的井喷式的疫情暴发。和澳大利亚类似，在这第一波疫情之后也没有迎来平静，目前还处在第三波疫情当中。而再晚开放一些的中国台湾地区也同样如此，目前经历了两波疫情，第三波疫情到来也只会是时间问题。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">所以，从这些国家或地区的现实经历来看，中国大陆在放开后的这个冬季，毫无疑问将迎来一波井喷式的新冠疫情。而在这个冬季疫情之后，一轮又一轮的疫情还会继续到来。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">当然，上面只是从新增病例数上来看，我们更应该看的是死亡人数。那么从死亡这个指标上来看，是否在这个冬季疫情之后，就会平静下来呢？</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">我们还是来看看澳大利亚、新西兰和中国台湾地区的情况。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align: center;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><img border="0" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="289" data-backw="546" data-ratio="0.5300925925925926" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/bb8614105625b22557aa08946959d011.png" data-type="png" data-w="432" height="320" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;height: auto;" width="604"/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">澳大利亚、新西兰和中国台湾地区的新冠疫情死亡病例走势图（图源：参考链接6）</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">从上图中可以看到，三个地区的第一波疫情都导致了大量的死亡的发生。但在接下来的几波疫情中，死亡也同样在发生。比如在新西兰，第二波疫情所带来的死亡人数还要高于第一波。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">在这里还重点需要指出的是，在新西兰和澳大利亚，主要接种的还是更为高效的mRNA新冠疫苗，而且从完成第二针接种或加强针的接种到开放的时间相对较短，所以疫苗保护效率还在一个较高的水平。而中国大陆接种的大多是保护效率相对低的灭活疫苗，更重要的是绝大多数人完成两针或三针接种到现在已经有了一年甚至更长的时间，疫苗的保护效率已经下降到了一个非常低的水平。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">所以，虽然同样是在疫苗接种后放开，但几乎可以预计的是，中国大陆放开后疫情所导致的损害很可能会高于澳大利亚和新西兰。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><br/></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">因此，无论是从新增病例还是从死亡人数上来看，第一波井喷式的疫情过后，并不能放松警惕，严峻的考验才刚刚开始。</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei=""><br/></span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span microsoft="" style="font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">公众当然可以畅想未来；但作为科学家，尤其是参与政府防疫政策制定的科学家，应该用理性谨慎地用科学数据说话，帮助我们的社会度过这个难关，而不是盲目乐观。<img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.9782608695652174" data-s="300,640" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/dc303376872f40b3de8b0bca830b2ed1.png" data-type="png" data-w="92" style="vertical-align: inherit;font-size: 16px;white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;max-inline-size: 100%;outline: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);caret-color: red;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 28px !important;height: auto !important;"/></span></span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span microsoft="" style="font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei=""><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 14px;"/></span></span></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span microsoft="" style="font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei=""><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 14px;">谨以此与</span><span style="color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 14px;">吴尊友博士共勉。</span></span></span></p><section data-role="paragraph"><p><br/></p></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;margin-bottom: 0.14in;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span microsoft="" style="font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei=""/></span></section><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 16px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;margin-right: 8px;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: left;width: 100%;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 100%;height: 240px;vertical-align: top;overflow-y: auto;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;overflow-x: hidden;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-top: 20px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0.1em 0.3em;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;border-width: 2px;border-style: solid;border-color: #fcfbfb;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: #888888;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="__bg_gif rich_pages wxw-img" data-fileid="508005251" data-ratio="0.4198473282442748" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/df5e9104c63baa8a2a2e70638bcb8c49.gif" data-type="gif" data-w="262" data-width="71px" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: inherit;outline: 0px;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color: rgb(62, 62, 62);text-align: center;width: 71px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;height: auto !important;" width="71"/><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color: rgb(123, 127, 131);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;color: #5379e2;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: #7b7f83;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: #5379e2;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: #888888;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"> </span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;">参考文献：</span></strong></span></strong><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;">（<span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">上</span>下滑动可浏览）</span></span></section><section data-role="list"><p style="text-align:left;margin-bottom: 0in;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">1.https://sinanews.sina.cn/native_zt/yingyanlandingpage1671284368?vt=4&pos=108</span></p><p style="text-align:left;margin-bottom: 0in;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">2.https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1t24y1D7zK/?spm_id_from=333.337.search-card.all.click</span></p><p style="text-align:left;margin-bottom: 0in;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">3.http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/gwylflkjz216/index.htm</span></p><p style="text-align:left;margin-bottom: 0in;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">4.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36220174/</span></p><p style="text-align:left;margin-bottom: 0in;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">5.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35980089/</span></p><p style="text-align:left;margin-bottom: 0.14in;"><span microsoft="" style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: 微软雅黑, " yahei="">6.https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p><br/></p><p arial="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" normal="" rgb="" right="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="margin-right: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" yahei=""><span style="outline: 0px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">封面图来源：123rf</span><br style="outline: 0px;"/></p><section arial="" gb="" helvetica="" medium="" neue="" normal="" rgb="" rgba="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" start="" style="margin-bottom: 16px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" yahei=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="19" data-backw="558" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.03333333333333333" data-s="300,640" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/d2b47a0ab0c698c48c0b3c55591763ed.png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-size: 16px;text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.544px;display: initial;box-sizing: border-box !important;width: 657px !important;visibility: visible !important;"/><br style="outline: 0px;"/></section><p arial="" center="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" normal="" rgb="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" yahei=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="325" data-backw="578" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" src="https://zfz-oss.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com/temp/0e481063b36e070644658f990818b600.png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="outline: 0px;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 100%;display: initial;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;height: auto;"/></p><section arial="" data-mpa-template="t" gb="" helvetica="" mpa-from-tpl="t" neue="" normal="" rgb="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, " ui="" yahei=""><p arial="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" rgb="" sans="" sans-serif="" sc="" style="margin-bottom: 8px;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, " ui="" visible="" yahei=""><span arial="" gb="" helvetica="" neue="" sans="" sans-serif="" style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(74, 75, 76);visibility: visible;font-size: 15px;font-family: " yahei=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img __bg_gif" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1" 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